Main debate - Pontón leads, Rueda resists
TVG, the public broadcast company has organized the main electoral debate. In addition to the three parliamentary parties (PP, BNG, PSdG), the company invited two additional left-wing parties: Sumar and Podemos. No other right-wing parties have been allowed to take part. The debate lasted for 120 minutes and was divided in three blocks: economy, welfare, and Spanish politics.
Pontón (BNG) and Rueda (PP) managed to keep a continuous confrontation, a dynamic very favorable to capture the attention of the audience. Pontón was able to keep Rueda under constant pressure, ensuring an attention from the camera during the entire debate that she was more than capable to use to galvanize his electorate and reinforce her role as the only one political alternative to Rueda.
Expressive, natural and assertive, Pontón has proved to be the most effective speaker of the BNG, and the only one of the participants who showed the capability to challenge the incumbent candidate. Rueda (PP) performed similarly well, but in the opposite direction. Dressing an institutional tone, he managed to transmit the idea of the only one alternative for those seeking stability, and managed to resist the continuous questioning of Pontón with a mix of disdain and falacies surely effective in his electoral bases.
The debate was opened by a very well constructed intervention by Lois (Sumar). Besuited in a stunning red outfit, she showed a noticeable capacity to deliver the party’s message, excelling in the more formal register at the expense of a more spontaneous interaction. Some problem with the spotlight may have caused an excesive tense and serious sight, an issue which was less prominent as the debate evolved.
Faraldo (Podemos) defined the opposite case, excelling from start to end in the more empathic and natural register, in a way thatillustrates how minority organizations can benefit from taking part in electoral debates. She clearly seized the opportunity to introduce a new and effective Galician voice in the Spanish extra-parliamentary left.
Besteiro (PSdG) delivered the most institutional of the performances, improving as the debate progressed, reaching the best moment in her defense of the Galician language. Clearly the best clothing among the men, watchless in a well contrasted suit, his balance between formal articulation and natural expression managed for sure to improve the perception among his voters.
Rueda (PP) managed for sure to galvanize his electorate. His dark and closed suit was so unremarkable as his prevailing bureacratic and administrative profile, paradoxically a positive element, as this could be probably in line with the expectations of his voters. The most surprising outcome was his smile, an asset that his marketing specialist may have left unnecessarily unattended. He probably failed to improve his connection with the younger and more urban population, but his critiques to the opposition may have resounded in the extreme-right voters. His lack of mentions to Ourense is probably the most remarkable issue, considering the risk of losing up to 2 seats to Democracia Ourensana.
It was difficult to watch Rueda without having Pontón on camera, the clear winner of the debate. She was the opposite to Rueda in every way, wearing a white suit on neutral shirt where the lack of jewelry helped to communicate a clean and natural image of honesty and political committement. She managed to keep the camera constantly in sight, challenging Rueda at every opportunity, and managing to force realization to divide the screen from the very beginning.
Analysis
Our perception is that the electoral debate will not substantially change prior vote intention. All participants have benefited from the debate. Instead, it will reinforce prior preferences. It could have an effect on the left-wing electorate, as an alternative governmental coalition was visualized, to be lead by Pontón. At the same time, we think that Podemos may have been the organization that managed to take more profit from the debate, as Faraldo managed to shine as a fresh and powerful voice of the working class on the left, that may now think twice before supporting other alternatives.
Parametrization
We strongly reinforce the value of BNG. We moderately increase the value of PP, and Podemos. We slightly increase the values of PSdG and Sumar.
