First estimation - naive model on updated census

Elections are now officially going on. The official call involves setting the number of seats per circumscription, which is calculated based on the official electoral census, published by the INE (National Statistics Institute) following up on the call. So the first step is to update the census, and test whether the estimation method is consistent with the call regarding allocation of seats per province.

After having downloaded the data, we now test the the algorithms with a naive model that estimates the current election as if votes where casted exactly as in the prior election, but updating census at the circumscription level, and concurring parties.

We have updated the census, and added Sumar Galicia and Democracia Ourensana. None of them show up due to insufficent casted votes in 2020. Our next update should include the new information retrieved from the municipal and general elections, together with our impressions from the process of candidature formation. Considering the latest news regarding Sumar (ideological controversy, and refusal by Anova) we will be likely planning to focus mostly on reflecting on the impressive growth experienced by DOu in the municipal ones.

As expected, results are the same as in the prior. Both plots included, for reference. The exercise was useful to depurate code, solve some bugs and do some refactoring.

Estimation 2024

Official results 2020