Podemos rejects coalition - nominates candidate

The leftist leaning party sustaining the Spanish Government coalition, Podemos has rejected the offer of Summar to take part in the Galician elections together. The decision includes taking part in the election, under Isabel Faraldo leadership.

Pablo Iglesias: “The best decision (…) is to reject the coalition with Sumar, and ask for the vote for BNG”

Analysis

This decision registers negative impacts for the electoral prospects of both parties (Podemos, Sumar) in every way. First, the decission arrives just three days after Sumar has nominated their official candidate, questioning the negotiating capacity of the leadership in both groups. Second, the effects induced by territorial bias will reduce even more the chances of any of both groups to overcome the electoral barrier. Third, the outcome reflects the proposal made by former Podemos Secretary General Pablo Iglesias, who recomended Podemos to . We would expect the highest negative impact may be received by Sumar, because blame for failing to achieve the coalition is likely to be attributed to its proponent (Sumar), and because tensions at the Spanish level between both organizations have been more successfully portrayed by Podemos as a sort of treason, therefore setting rejection to the coalition as more reasonable decission. In the positive side, both BNG and PSdG may get the benefits.

Parametrization

We significantly reduce the parameters for Sumar. We slightly decrease chances for Podemos. We increase the chances of BNG and PSdG. We also increase the parameters for PP.