Second reliable survey - DOu enters the scene

The results of a second wave of the only one reliable survey available so far has been published by Spanish journal El Pais, and produced by social research company 40db. Results are similar to the prior one, with the only relevant exception of Democracia Ourense, which is attributed a seat in the Parliament, and the possibility of the PP to lose the absolute majority.

Analysis

The survey technical data is the same as in the prior wave, with the exception of the time, now one full week over the prior two days (2-7 february 2024). The analysis of 40db has been adjusted to account for the emerging saliency of DOu. Analsys of transfers to vote now show a boost in the likelihood of voters in the left to switch support towards BNG. This is especially accute in the case of Sumar, with also a significant 22.7% socialist voters. Interesting as well is the good valuation of the BNG leader by Sumar voters, which is even higher than their own one. BNG speaker, Ana Pontón, gets the highest willingness to vote by Sumar members, followed by 31% of socialist voters.

In addition to the clear consolidation of Ana Pontón as the leader of the left, and the progressive weakening of Sumar and PSdG, another less noticed data emerges: party affinity for Dou is now three times higher than in the prior analysis.

Parametrization

BNG and DOu are boosted in terms of vote transference and leadership preference, with Sumar and PSdG significantly reducing their values in the same categories.